Writing since 2019 On media, technology & strategy

Essays & Dispatches

25 essays · 13 dispatches · 8 notes by Narendra Nag
Cover Essay · Career

The Counting Problem

In 2013 India's official records put malaria deaths at 440. The Lancet put them at 205,000. The strategic problem was an instrument problem the whole way down, and that gap is the thing I have actually worked on for twenty-eight years.

In 2013 the Indian government’s official records put malaria deaths in the country at 440. The government’s own medical certification of cause of death report put them at 5,428. A committee of the Indian Council of Medical Research put them at 40,297. The Lancet put them at 205,000.

I came across those four numbers sitting next to each other while running a stakeholder audit for Malaria No More in India, and the finding that mattered was not a health finding. State funding was allocated against reported incidence. The count was wrong by somewhere between ten and a hundred times, so the funding was wrong, so the delivery was wrong. Nobody in that chain was lying. Each of them was reporting the number their instrument produced.

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01 Research Report The State of Local Sports Rights in 2026A research report on the post-RSN landscape. Q2 2026

More from the desk

25 essays since 2019
№01

Sports as AI Insurance

Sports·28 Aug 2026

Within five weeks this spring, the reporter, the banker, and the fund all said the same thing: sports is the asset AI cannot synthesize. They are r...

12 min
№02

The Cheapest Truck Wins

Sports·14 Aug 2026

Thirteen NBA teams and seven NHL teams became local-television free agents this spring, and every bid on the table is a haircut. The post-RSN war w...

13 min
№03

The Observer Effect

Sports·31 Jul 2026

Half a season into MLB's robot-umpire era, the machine's biggest effect on baseball has come from the calls it never made. Umpires shade toward the...

11 min
№04

The Machine Is Right and Nobody Believes It

Sports·17 Jul 2026

The World Cup's offside machine took a goal off the board for a touch no replay can show, and FIFA says the call was correct. It probably was. That...

11 min
№05

The Bounce-Click Argument

Media·19 Jun 2026

Google's defense of AI Overviews is that the clicks they replace were 'bounce clicks' — visits no one valued. The defense is technically true. It i...

11 min
№06

The Magicians

Sports·5 Jun 2026

Italy 1990 was the first World Cup I watched. I have not missed a single game played in any World Cup since — nine tournaments, more than five hund...

13 min
№07

The First WNBA Billion-Dollar Team

Sports·12 May 2026

The Golden State Valkyries are worth $1 billion two seasons into existence. That number is the cleanest case study of a league entering its second ...

10 min
№08

The Untapped Economics of Minor League Broadcasting

Sports·6 May 2026

The FAST-era distribution stack has quietly inverted the unit economics of minor league broadcasting — most of the teams we already cut were alread...

15 min

Notes & marginalia

Short observations, filed as they happen

  • AUG 07 OpenAI said it had slowed development of its next major model, Astra, citing potentially critical cybersecurity capabilities.AI
  • JUL 21 Google released three new Gemini models. Gemini 3.5 Pro was not among them.AI
  • JUL 20 A federal judge approved Anthropic's $1.5B copyright settlement with authors — the largest on record. About 350 authors opted out.AI
  • JUL 16 Netflix disclosed in its Q2 shareholder letter that roughly 300 titles used generative AI in production this year.Streaming
  • JUL 14 US publishers sued Google over the use of their work to train Gemini.Media
  • JUL 01 Anthropic restored global access to Fable 5, and Mythos 5 for a set of US organizations, after the government lifted the June 12 directive.AI

From the archive

Pieces that keep resurfacing

“Streaming P&Ls optimize for minutes produced, which is cheap. The scarce variable is minutes earned — attention that is genuinely arousal...”

The Unit Economics of BoredomMedia ·May 2026 · 14 min

“The eleven-year, $76 billion media rights deal was priced against a world that is already moving — generationally, geographically, and th...”

The NBA's Next Decade Will Not Look Like Its LastSports ·Apr 2026 · 16 min

“CPM, followers, watch-time, RPM. The canonical creator-economy metrics are inherited from businesses that no longer exist. Modern creator...”

The Measurement Problem in Creator EconomicsMedia ·Apr 2026 · 13 min